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I like three underdogs in the wild-card playoffs this weekend -- which makes me happy, because I'd been picking too many favorites lately, and if there's one thing I hate to be, it's a chalk-eater.
TITANS OVER RAVENS: Talk about a strong-willed team. The Titans rallied round their old compadre, Neil O'Donnell, and handed the Bucs a right proper licking last weekend, and this is the way an outfit is supposed to respond when its leader is wounded. Steve McNair's health, particularly his mobility, is, of course, paramount in this contest because the Ravens will be chasing him all over the place. He'll have to make throws on the run, which he can do -- when fully functional. But the Jets loss showed us what McNair looks like when his mobility is limited.
Tennessee will run Eddie George some, just to show it, but the Titans aren't going to beat the Ravens that way. They'll beat them with three- and four-wideout sets in order to make Baltimore's nickel and dime backs cover. Teams have thrown for yardage on the Titans, but their run defense is No. 1 in the league, which dovetails nicely -- for them -- with the way the Ravens do business. Sturdy running, for sure, but a passing game that still looks like it's seat-of-the-pants.
COWBOYS OVER PANTHERS: Another win for a road underdog. I just can't believe that Jake Delhomme and the Carolina attack can beat this defense. The last time the teams met, in Dallas, it was a penalty-filled game that the Cowboys controlled, which included stopping Stephen Davis (26 carries, 59 yards). That was the game that moved Bill Parcells so much that he showed a bit of emotion in his postgame news conference.
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I think the Panthers will get out of their running mode and try to go up top
early. I think the Cowboys will pound the ball at first and then go deep. Turnovers
will decide it.
PACKERS OVER SEAHAWKS: I like the favored Packers -- big. The 49ers couldn't hurt the Seahawks as much as they'd have liked to on the ground because Kevan Barlow twisted his knee, and his replacement, Jamal Robertson, was a pussyfooter who got swallowed up by the Seattle D. The Packers won't be so accommodating. They'll come at the 'Hawks like the hammers of Thor, with their three heavy hitters, Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport and Tony Fisher.
Sounds too easy, doesn't it? Well, of course there's a catch. If the weather comes up mild, which will favor the 'Hawks and their passing game, Matt Hasselbeck could be able to throw on the banged up Pack secondary, which could happen ... and Green Bay is forced into a catch-up mode and Brett Favre throws a few picks, which also could happen. See, all this could happen, but I don't think it will. I think Green Bay will come out ultra-conservative, unlike the light show that Favre put on in Oakland, and stay on top of the game.
BRONCOS OVER COLTS: Last time they played, two weeks ago in the same venue, the RCA Dome, Indy was favored by seven. Now, after the Colts were thoroughly humiliated, the number has dropped to three. Seems that somebody has learned something.
It was kind of stunning, the way Denver ran the ball on that Colts defense, and that was without Clinton Portis. Indy made little Quentin Griffin look like Barry Sanders. At this juncture no one knows about Portis' availability for Sunday. That's the thing about the Denver operation. The Broncos feed running backs into their system, and then when they spit them out, they're damaged goods. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and now Portis all have been fed into the meat grinder. Then it'll be Griffin's turn, then whomever comes next.
Naturally, the Colts will
load up against a running game that smacked 'em for 227 yards on the ground,
but I just don't think those Indy defenders, who are of the small variety, match
up well against that mobile, precise Broncos O-line. And I don't think Peyton
and the boys will produce enough offense to outscore Denver.