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The Ravens ride the legs of Jamal “2K” Lewis into the postseason, bolstered by a defense that hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown in 10 quarters. Tennessee has a better record but qualifies as a wild card and will go as far as Steve McNair’s will can carry them. Baltimore has won the last five meetings between these former division arch-rivals, a fact that has to be gnawing at Jeff Fisher’s psyche. One thing is for certain: there will be some hellacious pads a-popping Saturday as the 2003 postseason gets underway with a bang.
When the Titans have the ball: Going back to the year 2000, when Tennessee had the top-rated defense in the NFL and Baltimore was a controversial second in the rankings, the Titans have managed just six offensive touchdowns in the six meetings between these clubs. In fact, if this one holds true to form you’re going to see a total of two offensive touchdowns, a defensive score, and three field goals. Ultimately—and this should come as no surprise—the game will be decided by turnovers. The Titans have run up at least 300 yards of total offense in three of their last four meetings with the Ravens, and dominated time of possession in three of those four games as well. However, all four have ended with Tennessee on the short end of the scoreboard, in no small part because they’ve turned the ball over nine times. If Tennessee wants to end their five-game losing string against Baltimore, they’re going to have to do it through the arm, feet, heart, and sheer iron will of their quarterback, Steve McNair. The Ravens haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown at M&T Bank Stadium all season, and they’ve played host to some pretty talented backs—Holmes, Portis, Taylor, Alexander to name a few. Eddie George hasn’t scored on the Ravens in the last three meetings between these clubs; in fact, you have to go all the way back to the first quarter of the Tennessee-Baltimore playoff game following the 2000 season to find the last time George reached paydirt against the Ravens. It’s difficult to see George picking up more than 60 yards on the ground here. Eddie has been a factor in the passing game in previous matchups with Baltimore, but whether he’ll be on the field in those packages this week remains to be seen. So it’s up to McNair, who says he feels as good as he’s felt in five weeks and will play despite the strained right calf muscle and cracked bone spurs in his left ankle. McNair will need to put that newfound health to good use, as you can expect Baltimore t o unleash Peter Boulware and Terrell Suggs in an effort to get to the Titans’ quarterback. If McNair is able to avoid the rush and even pose a threat once the pocket breaks down, it will give the Tennessee offense a whole ‘nother dimension. McNair has topped 250 yards in each of his past two games against Baltimore, but he’s thrown just one touchdown pass in their last four meetings. If the Ravens are to be had, however, it’s through the air; all nine offensive touchdowns they allowed at home this season were passes, seven of them to wideouts. Expect Air McNair to throw for 240 yards in this one, hooking up with favorite receiver Derrick Mason for a touchdown. Mason has enjoyed some success against the Ravens, catching 23 balls for 236 yards in his last three against them. Unless the Ravens use shutdown corner Chris McAllister exclusively on Mason, he’ll be McNair’s primary target. If Baltimore does opt to have McAllister tail Mason, Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins will have to step up. Titan tight ends have also traditionally fared well in this matchup, and Erron Kinney is a likely candidate for five catches and 50 yards. Missing kicks against the Ravens cost Al Del Greco his job, so the pressure is certainly on Gary Anderson. Expect at least one field goal, as the Ravens have given up a three-pointer in every home game this season.
When the Ravens have the
ball: So the Titans have the top run defense in the NFL. No less an authority
than Fred Taylor says that’s a fraudulent ranking, and you can expect
the Ravens to make every attempt to prove Taylor prophetic this Saturday. The
Ravens certainly won’t be intimidated by Tennessee’s credentials.
After all, you may recall back when the Ravens won the Super Bowl following
the 2000 season, their storied defense finished second in the league rankings—behind
the Titans. Baltimore didn’t buy the hype then, and they certainly aren’t
going to let the Titans’ league-low 80 rushing yards allowed per game
dissuade them from trying to shove Jamal Lewis right down Tennessee’s
throats. As evidenced by his cool dozen 100-yard games and 2,066 rushing yards—the
second-best single-season total in NFL history—the Ravens will run Jamal
every opportunity they get. Lewis has had success against the Titans, rushing
for 95 yards or more in two of his last three starts against them. He’s
also scored in two of his last three dustups with Tennessee and has averaged
better than four yards per carry in that span. Expect Lewis to approach that
familiar triple-digit territory with at least 90 yards on the ground on Saturday.
Not that it varies from opponent to opponent, but against Tennessee in particular
the Ravens have passed infrequently. In fact, they’ve averaged fewer than
15 completions per game in the six most recent meetings. They do get bang for
their buck, however, as they average about 13 yards per completion, or 197 per
game. The Titans secondary has been prone to give up the big play, so it wouldn’t
be at all surprising if Marcus Robinson or Travis Taylor were to sneak behind
Samari Rolle or Andre Dyson for a long gain. Odds are they’ll be stopped
shy of the end zone, however, as the Ravens have just four passing touchdowns
in their last six meetings with the Titans. Todd Heap doesn’t figure to
score, either, as the Titans have a llowed just three tight end touchdowns all
season. He is a decent yardage play, however, since Tennessee has been prone
to giving up yardage to backs and tight ends over the middle of the field. Still,
all indications point towards Ray Lewis or Ed Reed being better bets to score
than any member of the Baltimore passing game; after all, the Ravens have scored
just as many defensive touchdowns (four) in the last six games against Tennessee
as their passing game has provided over that same span. Baltimore has also kicked
a ton of field goals against the Titans—11, to be precise, over the last
six meeings. The Titans have given up 10 three-pointers over the last four games,
while Matt Stover has booted multiple treys in eight of his last 10. If you’re
looking for your best-bet fantasy kicker for wild card weekend, Stove Top is
your guy.