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The NFL playoffs have become a mini-version of the NCAA basketball tournament. There are 52 fewer teams involved, but all have a shot at a Cinderella run to a championship.
There are no dominant teams on The Road to Houston, so the two that avoid the most bumps and keep driving will get there. Getting the right matchups in terms of personnel and coaching philosophies will help prevent any wrong turns. January Madness also is about only surviving and advancing -- winning on a last-second field goal is just as effective as blowing out an opponent.
The 12 remaining teams all have different ways of winning and being beaten. Here's a breakdown of the bracket in the AFC:
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AFC
1. Patriots
Obvious strength: Coaching. They are the Eagles of the AFC. Bill Belichick and
Romeo Crennel excel at adjusting their defense to attack a particular opponent,
and Charlie Weis' base offense also changes from week to week. That also means
the Pats may lose both Crennel and Weis to head coaching jobs after their postseason
run.
Not-so-obvious strength: Experience. Tom Brady is in only his second full season
as the team's starting quarterback, and already has a Super Bowl MVP award to
his credit. Because of Belichick, both the Pats' veterans and youngsters know
what it takes to get there and win it all.
Obvious weakness: Running back. The Pats didn't have a 100-yard rusher until
Week 16, relying on a committee for most of the season. Rediscovering Antowain
Smith was a smart move, but he needs to keep running hard.
Not-so-obvious weakness: Kicker and punter. Adam Vinatieri had an uncharacteristic
run of field-goal struggles, and Ken Walter was cut for one week during the
season.
Pivotal players: The whole linebacker corps. Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Willie
McGinest and Roman Phifer are more than strong second-level defenders -- they
are the heart and soul of the Pats' 3-4. Bruschi has led the way in making team-inspiring
big plays.
Most unfavorable matchup: Titans. No team scored more than 16 points on the
Pats in Foxboro in 2003, except for Tennessee, which scored 30 in Week 5 despite
an off day from Steve McNair and little punch from the running game.
2. Chiefs
Obvious strength: Offensive explosiveness. It's almost impossible to deny Priest
Holmes the end zone, and once teams worry too much about him, Trent Green has
easy pickings.
Not-so-obvious strength: Opportunistic secondary. While their front seven has
struggled mightily to stop the run, their cornerbacks and safeties have made
the most of situations when teams must throw often in a comeback effort.
Obvious weakness: Run defense. This major problem can't be corrected, but it
can be covered up if the Chiefs get some big pass plays early and then turn
to clock-consuming drives with Holmes to help render an offense one-dimensional.
Not-so-obvious weakness: Wide receivers. If a secondary can take away both Eddie
Kennison and Johnnie Morton with its corners alone, it can dedicate its safeties
to run support vs. Holmes and working in coverage vs. tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Pivotal player: KR/WR Dante Hall. If a team chooses not to kick or punt the
ball to Hall, the Chiefs need to use his speed and versatility on offense and
find ways to get him in the open field.
Most unfavorable matchup: Broncos. The Chiefs don't want to see Clinton Portis
anytime soon, even on their home turf.
3. Colts
Obvious strength: Quarterback. Considering how much he does for their offense
in reading the field and having the freedom to audible, Peyton Manning would
be a deserving NFL MVP, and a first-round home game is his best chance to get
his first-ever playoff win.
Not-so-obvious strength: Running back. If there were any doubts, Edgerrin James
is fully healthy and starting to show his trademark power and burst again. Manning
is the main man, but continued strong play from James will be the biggest factor
in making the Colts' playoff run a long one.
Obvious weakness: Run defense. The best defense against the Colts is to control
time of possession to keep both Manning and James off the field. If Indianapolis
doesn't adjust it scheme to stop the run first and gets burned for big rushing
yardage, the ripple effect will be crippling.
Not-so-obvious weakness: Pass defense. If a team stays committed to a short-to-intermediate
passing game instead of going deep on Indy's zone, there is plenty of room to
get open and do something after the catch.
Pivotal player: DE Dwight Freeney. Freeney's speed is an offensive tackle's
worst nightmare on the pass rush and can disrupt a quarterback's rhythm. Big
plays from him are just as important as they are from Manning.
Most unfavorable matchup: Broncos. The proof was in the teams' Week 16 Sunday
night matchup. Denver had the perfect blueprint to beat the Colts, and their
defense has had little time to make adjustments for the rematch.
4. Ravens.
Obvious strength: Rushing offense. Jamal Lewis ran for 2,066 yards this season
against defenses that stacked the box to stop him. Enough said.
Not-so-obvious strength: Run defense. With Ray Lewis and Edgerton Hartwell anchoring
the 3-4 at inside linebacker, it's tough to find any open creases to run on
the Ravens, either between the tackles or on the perimeter.
Obvious weakness: Passing offense. The burden of winning can't be put on Anthony
Wright, but he needs to find ways to hit on occasional big plays to Robinson
to make Jamal Lewis all the more effective.
Not-so-obvious weakness: Nickel and dime defense. Top cornerback Chris McAlister
has played lights out of late, but the Ravens lack ideal secondary depth when
facing frequent three- and four-receiver sets.
Pivotal player: TE Todd Heap. Heap is a coverage mismatch for most linebackers
and safeties, and with teams concerned about Lewis, Wright needs to look to
Heap more often down the seams in the middle of the field.
Most unfavorable matchup: Titans. Ray Lewis and friends had Tennessee's number
when the teams were AFC Central rivals, but with a rested McNair spreading the
ball to four talented wideouts, the Titans can pull the first-round upset.
5. Titans.
Obvious strength: Passing offense. When McNair wasn't in there, Billy Volek
and Neil O'Donnell thrived with Tennessee's bevy of receiving options. Credit
offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger for making the best use of his best
talent.
Not-so-obvious strength: Run defense. The Titans have used five-man fronts at
times to stop the run, and always bring a toughness and intensity that's difficult
to match. They allowed a league-low 80.9 rushing yards per game in the regular
season.
Obvious weakness: Pass defense. Getting into a shootout with the Titans is a
good idea, because they finished 30th in the league in this category. The key
is throwing the ball early instead of waiting for more predictable passing situations.
Not-so-obvious weakness: Rushing offense. Eddie George still can carry the load
-- it just won't result in pretty numbers. Tennessee needs to get both rookie
Chris Brown and McNair more involved in the running game.
Pivotal players: DEs Jevon Kearse and Kevin Carter. If Kearse and Carter make
quarterbacks hurry their throws, then the Titans' suspect secondary will get
a huge assist by not needing to hold up in coverage for long stretches.
Most unfavorable matchup: Colts. The tables have turned as Indy returned the
favor of a Titans 2002 series sweep this season. If AFC South rivals meet for
a third time, Manning will pick apart Tennessee's secondary in the RCA Dome.
6. Broncos.
Obvious strength: Rushing offense. Their mobile, athletic offensive line excels
at pulling, and even though Denver can thrive on the ground no matter who's
running, Portis' shiftiness takes it to new heights.
Not-so-obvious strength: Run defense. Despite losing outside linebacker Ian
Gold and John Mobley to season-ending injuries, middle linebacker Al Wilson
and the Broncos' front four have more than held their own at the point of attack.
Obvious weakness: Inconsistency. Sometimes the Broncos come out clicking on
all cylinders, and other times they struggle to do anything effectively. If
the team that struggled at home against the Lions, Bears, Browns and Steelers
shows up, it will be a short stay on the road in the playoffs.
Not-so-obvious weakness: The secondary. It had a league-low nine interceptions
this season, so a patient, mistake-free underneath passing game will find success
against it.
Pivotal player: QB Jake Plummer. Plummer has been key to the Broncos' turnaround.
Can he keep up his own amazing transformation under the microscope of the playoffs?
Most unfavorable matchup: Patriots. The Broncos were outcoached and outplayed
in the second half of the teams' Week 9 Monday night game at Denver. Expect
a similar result if they have a rematch in New England.