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Is it too early
for fantasy owners to start checking in on the 2004 NFL rookie class? Not if
you like getting a jump on the competition. Below are the top prospects who
will (or are likely to) enter next year's NFL draft, along with a team that
should show interest and would be that player's best fantasy fit.
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Miami of Ohio. A monster (6-5, 240) with a great arm,
surprising mobility and grit. He has room to grow because he hasn't been playing
quarterback long and has faced mostly mid-major competition. Ticket master.Still,
Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich came out of the MAC (to say nothing of small-schoolers
Daunte Culpepper and Steve McNair), and Roethlisberger has the work ethic to
smooth out his rough edges (progressions, reading defenses).
Best/most likely destination: Cardinals.
QB Eli Manning, Mississippi.
Eli's arm strength and accuracy are similar to those of his brother, Peyton,
but he is a bit more athletic. His mechanics and football IQ are better than
most quarterbacks coming out of college, and they could improve with work and
time. He has quick feet, though he isn't really mobile, and he loses accuracy
the further downfield he throws. A great immediate fit in Pittsburgh's quick-hitting,
receiver-rich passing game.
Best/most likely destination: Steelers.
RB Kevin Jones, Virginia
Tech. Jones, a speedster with game-breaking ability but questionable size (6-0,
211), power and NFL durability, could be the first running back selected. He
could get worn down or hurt in a grind-it-out attack, but put him in situations
where he can use his speed and pass-catching ability 15-20 times a game, and
he could be explosive. Think Onterrio Smith.
Best/most likely destination: Lions, Redskins.
RB Chris Perry, Michigan.
Perry doesn't wow scouts the way other top running backs often do, but complete
players with adequate size at the position who excel in college often do well
in the pros. He is an Eddie George-type runner in terms of vision, patience
and power. Perry might be a tad shiftier, though, like George, he doesn't have
that second gear to outrun defenders.
Best/most likely destination: Cowboys, Bears.
RB Steven Jackson, Oregon
State. For a runner with the size to be a workhorse back (6-3, 227), Jackson
can haul. He has a powerful, slashing style, but it is his ability to get to
top speed quickly that sets him apart from most at his position. He could produce
in just about any offense, but he would be especially effective as a cutback
runner in a zone-blocking scheme like Denver's or Kansas City's. Too bad those
teams already have studs at Jackson's position.
Best/most likely destination: Cowboys, Patriots.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh.
Fitzgerald is only a sophomore, but he appears as ready for the NFL as any receiver
coming out of college in recent memory. He has quality size (6-3, 218), and
though he doesn't have blinding speed, he is fast enough and rates off the charts
almost everywhere else. He is an excellent route runner, gets good separation
and has amazing hands on the run or in traffic. He will have huge scoring potential
and should be an instant success. You're welcome, Mike Vick.
Best/most likely destination: Atlanta.
WR Reggie Williams, Washington.
Williams, like Fitzgerald, has excellent size and quickness, and more than adequate
speed -- which is enhanced by his ability to top out faster than most big receivers.
He will beat press coverage and be a matchup nightmare for most cornerbacks
because of that size and his agility, but his route-running skills and hands
could use work. He could be a nice replacement for Terrell Owens in San Francisco.
Best/most likely destination: 49ers, Jets.
WR Roy Williams, Texas.
The biggest knock on Williams is his durability, and he was healthy for all
of 2003. He is big (6-3, 210), strong and quick, which makes him almost impossible
to press at the line. He hasn't clocked well, but he has deceptive speed and
often gets over the top of DBs downfield. Like most young receivers, his route
running could be better, but Williams will be a solid No. 3 fantasy starter
from Day One if he lands in the right spot.
Best/most likely destination: Raiders.
TE Kellen Winslow Jr., Miami.
Winslow might turn out to be the best player in this year's draft, though he
will have to wind up in the right system for that to show right away. He is
a more athletic and instinctual pass catcher than most wide receivers in the
draft, but he has tight end size (6-5, 230). Combine that with his excellent
speed, and you have a bear of a matchup for NFL safeties and linebackers. He
could be a top-five fantasy tight end coming out of the gate.
Best/most likely destination: Lions, Bills.
TE Ben Troupe, Florida.
Troupe has good size (6-4, 253) and speed for a player with his speed and skill,
but he still could be only a part-time player (at least early on) if he is drafted
into a system that stresses blocking over receiving ability at his position.
That said, his hands, burst off the ball and out of his breaks and ability to
get downfield will make him a nice weapon on third downs for any club.
Best/most likely destination: Rams, Lions.
Now, we move back to the NFL and take a look at Week 17:
HOT
RB Anthony Thomas, Bears. Because of his running style, Thomas takes a lot of beatings, but he is a good back capable of great moments when he is healthy and his blocking is there. At Kansas City this week, the Bears' offense has a strong matchup, but one that favors the running game even more than the pass. Rex Grossman is a pup making his first start on the road (at Arrowhead, of all places) and has lost a couple of running mates (Dez White, Justin Gage). Chicago's offensive line is an underrated drive-blocking unit, and Thomas will be facing a Chiefs run defense that now ranks last in the league (150.7 yards allowed per game) and is in utter disarray.
WR Charles Lee, Buccaneers. Can Tampa Bay's passing game be counted on anymore? Keep in mind, Brad Johnson's interceptions don't hurt Lee (not directly, anyway), who has averaged 74.6 yards and has two TDs in five games since taking his place in the Buccaneers' starting lineup. Tennessee's pass rush will give hell to Johnson and the Bucs' offensive line, but Titans opponents have moved the ball in the air (228.1 yards per game) because most don't bother with their top-ranked run defense and injuries have sapped their secondary depth. Andre Dyson is an athletic, smart cover corner, but his size (5-10, 183) will be a problem against the 6-2, 210-pound Lee, especially in the red zone.
Rams defense/special teams. About the only thing that could make this matchup more pleasant for St. Louis would be a home game. But a date at Ford Field isn't a bad deal when the payoff is facing the Lions on the turf that gives the Rams that extra zip -- and not just on offense. Lovie Smith's defense also is built on speed, which only will enhance the matchup advantages of end Grant Wistrom and cornerbacks Jerametrius Butler and Travis Fisher (to name just a few). The Lions don't have the personnel to capitalize on the Rams' shaky run D, and Joey Harrington is turnover-prone and lacks NFL starter-caliber weapons in the passing game.
COLD
QB Aaron Brooks, Saints. Brooks has been hot lately (12 total TDs, zero interceptions in five games), but he also has been stung by fumble problems that are due at least in part to his rapidly eroding pass protection. Injuries on the offensive line and the loss of Joe Horn for the season finale are too much to overcome against the league's top pass defense. Jerome Pathon and Donte' Stallworth have their limitations, depth is limited behind them and Boo Williams will be of only so much help this week because Cowboys safeties Roy Williams and Darren Woodson might be football's best cover tandem at their positions.
RB Travis Henry, Bills. Henry has managed to rise above his surroundings most weeks, but the load might be getting too much for him to bear -- especially on a broken right leg and with a set of aching ribs. The Dolphins did a number on him last week (only 67 rushing yards on 24 carries), and a game in New England to wrap up a wash of a season could be more problematic. The Patriots have a nearly ideal personnel set to run their gap-collapsing 3-4 defense and switch in and out of other defensive sets (including a five-man front that should scare Henry owners). The Pats are giving up just 3.5 yards per carry and still have something to play for.
WR Justin McCareins, Titans. McCareins has been a fantastic addition for fantasy owners who were lucky enough to get their mitts on him, but this week could go either way for him. Though McCareins still is the Titans' No. 2 receiver, Drew Bennett's return has denied him of some opportunities. Owners could do worse than one of Steve McNair's starting receivers in a home game against a Tampa Bay secondary that has nothing left in terms of depth. But the Bucs still rank No. 2 in the league in pass defense, McNair could have trouble hobbling around to avoid Tampa Bay's pass rush and McCariens' skill set and scoring panache aren't well suited to putting up numbers against a cover 2 zone.
SLEEPERS
RB Rock Cartwright, Redskins. A number of factors are at play in this case, but one stat will keep a lot of fantasy owners from starting Cartwright this week: one. That is the number of times in his career that Cartwright has logged at least 20 carries in a game. Still, with Ladell Betts and Trung Canidate out and the Eagles' defense barely hanging on against the run, expect a semi-humbled Steve Spurrier to tuck away Fun ‘n' Gun for a day in favor of the ol' bump and grind. Cartwright isn't elusive, but he has the power and burst to the hole to take advantage of a Philadelphia run defense that is reeling because of injuries and the resultant depth and size problems along the front seven.
QB Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Brilliant last week while dismantling Detroit's pass defense, Delhomme could be just as effective against a New York secondary that has more injured defensive backs than healthy ones. Giants Stadium can be tough on opponents and Delhomme has been markedly better at home than on the road, but take your cues from the matchup this week. Stephen Davis could sit (and surely will get a big rest), and the Panthers could use this game as an opportunity to tune up their passing game for the playoffs. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad have excellent matchups, and the healthy return of Kevin Dyson now makes Carolina four deep at receiver.
WR Brandon Lloyd, 49ers.
Lloyd, who scored a TD and a two-point conversion last week after Terrell Owens
was lost to a broken collarbone, essentially will take Owens' place in the starting
lineup this week. He isn't a proven commodity, but he has the tools (hands,
quickness, agility, adequate speed) to be a good possession receiver with some
scoring potential. Facing tougher competition as a starter will rob him of some
advantages, but the extra playing time against a Seahawks secondary that has
given up a lot of big plays in recent weeks should more than make up the difference.